The rate of global warming is too high
In the decade preceding 2023, the Earth’s average surface temperature has risen by 1.2°C[1] since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, with annual variations influenced by the ocean’s absorption of heat[2]. The coming years are expected to be even warmer, with the current rate of global temperature increase estimated at 0.20°C per decade[3].
Advanced climate models, driven by state-of-the-art supercomputing, predict that global temperatures could rise by an additional 1°C to 2°C in the coming decades, even if all countries fully adhere to their greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the Conference of Parties agreements. This would result in total warming of 2.2°C to 3.2°C, exceeding the 2°C threshold deemed dangerous by scientists.
As of 2024, the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets established during COP21[4] appear increasingly unattainable, as global emissions continue to rise[5]. Achieving a rapid decline in GHG emissions is critical to mitigating the progression of global warming. Delays in implementing these reductions heighten the risk of prolonged ed CO2 accumulation in the upper atmosphere, where it is less likely to be absorbed by oceans or vegetation. This scenario may compel the deployment of high-altitude balloons equipped with ed CO2 removal technologies.
In the worst-case scenario, if wealthy nations fail to develop affordable clean alternatives to fossil fuels, developing countries may accelerate their consumption of coal and petroleum. This could result in a more rapid increase in global warming, pushing the temperature rise towards 0.30°C per decade, with the hottest years potentially reaching a 4°C increase by 2100.